ASP Covid-19 Exercise

Azwinndini Muronga (Nelson Mandela University), Dephney Mathebula (University of Venda), Ketevi Adikle Assamagan (Brookhaven National Laboratory (US))
ASP Covid-19 Exercise
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ASP COVID-19 Analysis
Ketevi Adikle Assamagan
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Somiéalo, Dephney, Getrude, Toivo, Aluwani, Azwinndini, Michael, Moses, Funmi, Francisco, Kossi, Jean Baptiste, Malupe and Kétévi.

  • Getrude is joining us to work on Kenya (with the help of Ann Njeri);
  • We discussed progress reports (data collection, preparation and modeling up to the beginning of vaccination) from Toivo (Mozambique), Aluwani and Francisco (South Africa), Michael (Nigeria), Somiéalo (Togo), Jean Baptiste (Cameroon). Some pieces of data may no longer be available, e.g. records of the recovered cases are no longer being kept in some cases. If it is one piece data that is missing, we might infer it from the other data provided the total number of cases is available. In case more than one piece of data is no longer kept, we will discuss how to handle such scenarios in the modeling;
  • In the model, we need to consider a dynamical evolution between the compartments of the vaccinated and the Infected and update the equations appropriately. If we want to estimate more detailed information, such as the fraction of vaccinated people who are subsequently infected and eventually died, we will have to modify the equations further. For now, we will consider the simple case of a fraction of vaccinated people who may be infected after vaccination—Kossi will do this for our next meeting.
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