[request] is this accurate?(v.redd.it)

No it's not accurate. She bases your entire chance of getting covid off of total cases divided by population instead of current cases. Your chances of running into and contracting covid are not 1/8 because there aren't 41 million people who currently have covid.

So no she is not "really fucking good at numbers."

Edit: a comment pointed out I was wrong so I'll put my update math here. I assumed the 7 day figure I used was the total for the week not the daily average (I'm an idiot).

Actual number would be (136558×7+156341×7)÷332,732,230. Which would make your chances of running into a positive case .6% instead of .088%.

To the people turning this into a political debate: go touch grass.

What is your actual percent chance? I’ve been trying to figure out how to calculate this but have just resorted to cases/population which is about 12%

Since people usually recover from covid after 14 days you would use the case rate from the past two weeks divided by total population. This week was 136,558, last week was 156,341, which gives us 292,899 divided by 332,732,230 which is .00088 or .088% of the population. So assuming all of these infected people go out into public with zero regard for their neighbors, your chance of running into a covid positive person is .088%.

It can be higher or lower depending on where you live, if you go to events, if you travel, etc.

This is all data from the cdc.

your chance of running into a covid positive person is .088%

That's the lower limit. We just don't know how many people actually have covid, just how many have tested positive. That's been the insidious part of this since the drop. So many people are asymptomatic and are spreading it. So we simply don't have a way to calculate that from the case numbers until more research is done as to what the percentage is of infected people who are asymptomatic.

And is the 14 days from infection or onset of symptoms? If the virus takes 7 days to show symptoms, you need to add another week to your case total.

And then you add in the regional aspect to it, and all bets are off for a reasonably accurate percentage of your chance of coming across a person with covid. If you live somewhere with a high vaccination rate and people who take this seriously, your odds are likely better than the .088%. But if you're in a town that's got a vax rate of 30% and the other 70% are taking no precautions, you very likely might be hitting above 1 in 8.

Thanks, that’s pretty useful. And that would be the largest percent chance I have of even encountering the virus today. Like you said that doesn’t include travel and the amount I interact or precautions taken by myself or others and that those infected would have to be out and about.

Good info. Thanks!

Again, it’s weird when you talk yourself on multiple accounts, dude. Weird and obvious.

your chance of running into a covid positive person is .088%.

Only if you try to count your chances to get covid TODAY. The problem is you might be lucky whole year long except one day and still die.

Even then it would be way off. He calculated using daily averages as if they were weekly averages (a factor of 7), and assumed you only interact with one person per day.

But fortunately, this is the chance of interacting with an infected person if they all go out in public. Sick people usually stay home, so you’d mostly be dealing with presymptomatic transmission. And seeing someone who is infected doesn’t guarantee that you’re infected, especially if you wear a mask, keep your distance, and are vaccinated.

So empirically, the chance of actually getting Covid in the US per day is about 0.04% (140k/330M) plus however many we don’t detect. But as you said, over a couple years that adds up to a lot of illness and death. And that’s with lockdowns, masks, social distancing, vaccines etc.

Jimmy isn't good at numbers either

which is .00088 or .088% of the population.

To put this in perspective, if you went to an NFL stadium with a sold out crowd of 60,000 people, roughly 53 people in that stadium actively have covid.

Isn't this the percent chance of selecting one Covid-positive person out of a proverbial hat? That's a different reality than going to a crowded grocery store where you're running into and sharing space with multiple people.

So if .088% is the chance a random American has Covid, we need to adjust the odds of catching it depending on how many people you see in a day as well as the other factors you mentioned.

since case only last 2 week you use 2 week data of cas's

292,899 peepel infect last 2 weemks so 292,899 people covid vector currently.... divide and get 0.08 percent chance of runnig into current covid vector today...

Multiply that with the number of days since covid started + the number of days it will continue to be here.

This week was 136,558, last week was 156,341, which gives us 292,899 divided by 332,732,230 which is .00088 or .088% of the population.

Unfortunately no. The numbers you quoted are daily case counts, averaged (not summed) over 7 days. To get the weekly count you need to multiply the average daily count by 7. So the fraction of people who have Covid at any given time is 7 times higher, more like 0.6%.

So assuming all of these infected people go out into public with zero regard for their neighbors, your chance of running into a covid positive person is .088%.

Times 7, times the number of people you meet in close enough quarters to be exposed. If you drink at a bar with 30 other people, this becomes 0.088% (your number) times 7 times 30, which is about 18%, for one night out drinking. In fact it’s probably lower because most people with symptoms will stay home, vaxxed people won’t be contagious for the full two weeks, etc. But the risk of exposure is not negligible. That’s why so many people are catching it.

.088% of the population. So assuming all of these infected people go out into public with zero regard for their neighbors, your chance of running into a covid positive person is .088%

Your math actually assumes that the person only encounters one other human, this week, and then never comes in contact with another human again in their life.

But you aren't factoring in the infection rate. If every person infected more than one other person (e.g. Covid, especially delta) and everyone who gets it is active in the community then the number of cases rises exponentially. Realistically, if everyone is active in the community the total chance of getting covid with time is actually near on 100%. So that part of the video is not quite right but your numbers are way too low and here's are probably still conservative. All her other numbers seem pretty close as they are based on % cases.

Here's a calculation of the weekly rate of catching it.

If you want to find out what the chance is of dying from it, just multiply the final percentages by the % chance of dying from the disease once you've caught it.

Thats the probability that a random person has already had it. In the long run it's 100% for an unvaccinated person

Not entirely true. There is a chance an unvaxxed person never gets it. They could die of other causes before getting it, they could live on Mars alone. I mean there are at least duos of reasons that’s not true. The only thing is guaranteed is death and taxes

She bases your entire chance of getting covid off of total cases divided by population instead of current cases.

You seem to be concerned with WHEN you get it... I don't think that was her point. Whether you got COVID in 2020, get it today or get it in a year, the odds of living or dying are the same (assuming you don't/didn't get it in a time and place where hospitals are overwhelmed).

So her math is right on that count.

Where it's wrong is the 1:62 chance of survival, I believe. That sounds like the odds of surviving being hospitalized with COVID not testing positive, but here number of cases are just positive tests.

So she might be good at numbers, but she's bad at comparing apples to apples.

Still... the real numbers aren't all that much more cheery. In absolute numbers, about 50% more people have died of COVID in the US as died in combat in WWII. (source1, source2)

On your comment about the 1:62 chance, here's my math. Take the number of deaths and divide by total number of cases of Covid, and you will get deaths per case. The reciprocal of that is cases per death, which is a more natural way of thinking about it. Numbers I'm working with are 40M cases and 0.65m deaths. That's 0.01625 deaths per case, or 61.5 cases per death. By raw numbers, if 62 peaple catch Covid, 1 will die. Since I was looking at total cases and not just hospitalizations, that number is per case.

Assuming most Covid deaths end up hospitalized first, you chances of dying go up drastically from there if you get hospitalized, since only a fraction of the Covid cases get hospitalized. If 1/10 cases is hospitalized, for example, that would mean you that 0.65M number was mostly drawn from a pool of only 4M, making your chances of dying if hospitalized much closer to 1/6, or a literal die roll.

On your comment about the 1:62 chance, here's my math. Take the number of deaths and divide by total number of cases of Covid

In short, you are roughly measuring the CFR (Case Fatality Rate, 1.6% in the US or 1 in 62.5) than either deaths per capita (0.2%) or true deaths per infection (a number we can only estimate, but which must logically be lower than the CFR). source

She is right, you are a dumbass.

The only criticism to be made is, the unvaccinated cases happened over 1.5 years, and the vaccinated cases over 0-6 months, so the difference in rate of getting covid would be less drastically different, but still dramatically different.

Nah, she's wrong, guy.

Shut up the people who aren't vaccinated aren't smart people and she blew most of their minds with this math.

This comment needs to be higher

I was going to say. You can’t get the data for this problem because 140 millions didn’t get the vaccine in august whatever date she gave. You’d need a consistent number of vaccinated because if this is a variable then the resulting problem would be a polynomial.