Naturalness arguments have shaped our expectations for what the LHC would see, and seem to be in disarray given the results of the 8 TeV run. Besides not seeing the expected new particles, lack of progress on the cosmological constant problem appears to undermine the whole picture. Is it time to abandon these arguments? This talk describes my own (cautiously optimistic) view about what the current situation says about them, and about what we should expect to see at the LHC once it restarts at full energy. Bets are welcome after the talk.
