Hype Curves and the optimization of the bibliometric performance in Scientific Research

by Ruggero Vaglio (Universiy of Napoli Federico II)

Tuesday 15 Mar 2016, 14:00 → 15:00 Europe/Zurich

593-R-010(Salle 11) (CERN)

Gartner “hype curves” are a well known instrument to predict the evolution of the success of a specific technological product. However the empirical and theoretical justification of those curves is still an open question in the field of Technological Life Cycle analysis. In this lecture the author will introduce a simple model describing the growth of scientific/ technological research impact, in the specific case where science is the main source of a new idea driving a technological development, leading indeed to “hype-type” evolution curves. The model is tested through a bibliometric analysis of the publication and patent deposit rate in different emerging technologies, and is shown to give some general hint to optimize the bibliometric performance in scientific research. The possibility to apply the same model to predict success in a large variety of fields will be finally discussed.