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    ASP Covid-19 Exercise

    → Europe/Zurich
    Ketevi Adikle Assamagan (Brookhaven National Laboratory (US))
    Description

    We will stop the meeting at 14:30 GMT to attend a CERN colloquium on Covid-19.

    --
    Dear colleagues,

    Please find details related to the CERN Colloquium on Thursday 30 April at 16h30:
     
    Some epidemiological considerations on COVID, mainly in China and Italy
    by Prof. Giorgio Parisi (President of the “Academia dei Lincei”, Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Roma ``La Sapienza")
     
     
    Abstract:  
    I will present some epidemiological considerations on COVID, mainly in China and Italy, paying much attention to systematic errors in the epidemiological data that have many different sources, e.g. underreporting. The issue of non-pharmacological interventions will be discussed at the end of the colloquium.
     
    Organised by: Wolfgang Lerche, Monica Pepe-Altarelli
     
    Please find the Zoom link to join the colloquium: 
    Password: 623897
    Please connect to Zoom few minutes in advance.
     
    Please note that a Webcast retransmission will be available for this Colloquium.
     
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    Covid-19 Exercise. Meeting on May 7

    https://indico.cern.ch/event/916070/

    Present: John Ellis, Somiealo Azote, George Zimba, Toivo Mabote, Kondwani Mwale, Cyrille Haliya, Fabien Ebode, Kétévi Assamagan

    - Somiealo showed her full implementation of the SIDARTHE model with the time-dependent reproductive number R0 for Italy.
    - Toivo and Cyrille have the implementation of the SIDHARTE with a fixed R0. Toivo will send the time-dependent case soon.
    - Kondwani and Cyrille reported issues during their implementation of the SIDARTHE. Hopefully, those will be resolved soon.

    - When the SIDARTHE with the time-dependent R0 is implemented, the task for next week is the following: identify the time-dependent R0 for your country, run the SIDRATHE with that, and superimpose the data from your country without doing a fit yet.

    - John suggested how to estimate a time-dependent R0 for your country, as follows: read pages 2 and 3 of the SIDARTHE paper; note at which dates your country implemented different measures to contain the spread of Covid-19 (similar to what Italy did); and at these specific dates, set the same R0 values as in the case of Italy. This will give you a variation of R0 with time (for your country) that you should use to adapt the model.

    Next meeting on Thursday May 14 at 12:00 GMT. For the next meeting, let’s see at least one result where the SIDARTHE is adapted for your country with a specific time-dependent R0 estimated as described above. And superimpose your data to the model without doing a fit.

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