ASP Covid-19 Exercise

Ketevi Adikle Assamagan (Brookhaven National Laboratory (US))

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Meeting ID: 919 1441 1120

COVID-19 Analysis meeting on October 20, 2020

Present: Aluwani, Azwinndini, Francisco, George, Toivo and Kétévi.

1. Toivo presented progress on Mozambique and Rwanda with uncertainty band on data / model. Toivo’s results have converged; What is left is to add the theory (model) uncertainties and systematic uncertainties from the data collection process. We will discuss these later. Meanwhile, Toivo will contact Ebode in order help finish the modeling of Cameroon. Francisco too should help.

2. George said he will report on Zambia next week. However, if he does not find time, he will let us know—Toivo and Francisco can help.

3. We discussed also the report from Madagascar. Here too, there is good progress. The discontinuity in the data around Day 115 needs to be understood. Although the total cases are well-modeled around Day 115, there is mis-modeling in both the active and recovered cases which seem to cancel. We need to handle this better, e.g. by doing 2 different models, before and after the point of discontinuity.

4. Aluwani report on Benin, about modeling the data after the gap. There may be array indexing issues. If necessary, Aluwani and Kétévi will on Thursday to resolve this.

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