Is the constrained MSSM already ruled out?

by Roszkowski, L. (CERN & University of Sheffield)

Friday 26 Jan 2007, 14:00 → 15:00 Europe/Zurich

TH Auditorium (CERN)

The Constrained MSSM (also known as the minimal supergravity model) is arguably the most popular realization of effective low-energy supersymmetry in the context of grand unification. Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo scanning procedure it is possible to perform a thorough exploration of the model taking properly into account constraints from collider and cosmological data, and to derive some robust predictions. Using the formalism of Bayesian statistics we find that the light Higgs boson is very similar to the Standard Model Higgs boson, and that the 68% posterior probability region for its mass lies between 116.0 GeV and 120.4 GeV. At 95% it increases to some 122 GeV. We show that 95% CL exclusion limit on the above mass range can be set at the Tevatron with 2/fb of integrated luminosity which is already available to both the CDF and DZero experiments. Prospects for the Higgs discovery at the Tevatron will also be discussed.