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ASP Covid-19 Exercise

→ Europe/Zurich
Ketevi Adikle Assamagan (Brookhaven National Laboratory (US))
Description

We will stop the meeting at 14:30 GMT to attend a CERN colloquium on Covid-19.

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Dear colleagues,

Please find details related to the CERN Colloquium on Thursday 30 April at 16h30:
 
Some epidemiological considerations on COVID, mainly in China and Italy
by Prof. Giorgio Parisi (President of the “Academia dei Lincei”, Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Roma ``La Sapienza")
 
 
Abstract:  
I will present some epidemiological considerations on COVID, mainly in China and Italy, paying much attention to systematic errors in the epidemiological data that have many different sources, e.g. underreporting. The issue of non-pharmacological interventions will be discussed at the end of the colloquium.
 
Organised by: Wolfgang Lerche, Monica Pepe-Altarelli
 
Please find the Zoom link to join the colloquium: 
Password: 623897
Please connect to Zoom few minutes in advance.
 
Please note that a Webcast retransmission will be available for this Colloquium.
 
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Our meeting was very short so that we could connect to the CERN colloquium at 14:30 GMT.

Present at our meeting: Prof. John Ellis, Prof. Simon Connell, Dr. Somiealo Azote, Ssbandeke John, Kondwani Mwale, Toivo Samuel Mabote, George Zimba, and Kétévi Assamagan

  1. Many people did the implementation of the SEIR model. No problems were reported. Many updated presentations are uploaded to the agenda page;
  2. Simon presented his implementation of the SEIR model and his library of codes is available for those interested. It is concluded, as most people have found out, that the SEIR could not describe our data. Going beyond the SEIR, Simon presented the SIDTARHE•8 stages of infection: •susceptible (S), infected (I), diagnosed (D), ailing (A), recognized (R), threatened (T), healed (H) and extinct (E). The model may be found here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0883-7.pdf. Please take a look at page 7. The decision is that we move to implement the 8 differential equations on page 7 for the next meeting.
  3. Please read the paper in 1) above, especially page 7;
  4. We should do 1) assuming the parameters are constant. After that, as discussed at the meeting, we will consider time-dependence of some of the parameters;
  5. Prof John Ellis pointed out that the rate of infections would depend stochastically on sociological considerations, for example, the differences between rich and poor fractions the population, with some couplings among them. We need to consider at least a 2x2 matrix formulation to address this effectively.
  6. Let’s proceed in stages:  we should all do 1) and 2) first. Then we will introduce 3) and 4).
  7. The ASP online lecture series will start on Thursday May 7 at 14:00 GMT; we need to move our meeting to a different time. I suggest 12:00 GMT – we will keep each meeting within 1 hour.
There are minutes attached to this event. Show them.