Speaker
Mr
Petr Gololobov
(ShICRA of SB RAS)
Description
We present the results of studies of zonal harmonics of the cosmic ray distribution during geomagnetic storms. Zonal harmonics have been determined using a global survey method as a variant of spherical analysis of the world neutron monitor network data. We have analyzed 56 major geomagnetic storms observed in 1997 - 2005. It is shown that a sharp increase (> 0.7%) of zonal component amplitude of the isotropic part of cosmic ray distribution precedes a geomagnetic storm. A probability of precursor manifestation is about 75% , and the time of advance of a magnetic storm is 10 hours on the average. It is shown that the global survey method can be used for the effective short-term prediction of geomagnetic disturbance onset.
| Registration number following "ICRC2015-I/" | 0264 |
|---|---|
| Collaboration | -- not specified -- |
Author
Vladislav Grigoryev
(ShICRA of SB RAS)
Co-authors
Mr
Petr Gololobov
(ShICRA of SB RAS)
Dr
Sergey Starodubtsev
(ShICRA of SB RAS)
