8–12 Sept 2025
Hamburg, Germany
Europe/Berlin timezone

Learning Reliable Uncertainties - The Return of the Ensemble

9 Sept 2025, 17:20
20m
ESA C

ESA C

Oral Track 3: Computations in Theoretical Physics: Techniques and Methods Track 3: Computations in Theoretical Physics: Techniques and Methods

Speaker

Nina Elmer (Heidelberg University)

Description

Neural networks for LHC physics must be accurate, reliable, and well-controlled. This requires them to provide both precise predictions and reliable quantification of uncertainties - including those arising from the network itself or the training data. Bayesian networks or (repulsive) ensembles provide frameworks that enable learning systematic and statistical uncertainties. We investigate different aspects of repulsive ensembles: the dependence on the repulsive kernel, biases for small training datasets, and systematic uncertainty estimation for the overall ensemble.

Authors

Henning Bahl Nina Elmer (Heidelberg University) Ramon Winterhalder (Università degli Studi di Milano) Tilman Plehn (Heidelberg University)

Presentation materials