8–21 Sept 2024
DESY
Europe/Zurich timezone

Error underestimation in high-statistics counting experiments with finite Monte Carlo samples

11 Sept 2024, 16:38
7m
Building 1b SR4a/b (DESY)

Building 1b SR4a/b

DESY

Speaker

Cristina-Andreea Alexe (Scuola Normale Superiore & INFN Pisa (IT))

Description

Often in HEP analyses a distribution of high-statistics data is used to constrain the parameters of a complex model, containing the Physics parameter of interest (POI), but also several nuisance parameters describing systematic uncertainties. The model is estimated from Monte Carlo (MC) simulated samples and we show that their finite size can lead to the underestimation of the error on the POI in a way that is not accounted for by the traditional methods to correct for finite MC statistics. Additionally, we propose a way to estimate the size of this underestimation.

Presentation materials